90% Down Day

People have been asking me for some time are we there yet?  Has the market bottomed?  We’re getting closer.  Any monkey could tell you that.  Today, the volume on the NYSE is about 90% downside volume and 10% upside volume and it’s been deteriorating all day.  This shows some panic.  But, we need to watch the next few days very carefully.  If we get 3 or 4 of these over a short time period and then we immediately get some 90% up days, that may be the bottom we’ve been waiting for.  We may be under 11000 on the Dow at that point. 

Our job will be to uncover our shorts and buy longs in a short amount of time to take full advantage of the panic.  Also, watch the close.  Let’s see if the volume picks up as we go into the close and let’s see if the market finishes on its lows of the day. 

Getting nasty out there.

Could A Meaningful Bottom Be Coming Soon?

For those of your that have been reading my blog for a while, you’re perfectly positioned and can sleep at night because you are actually going up on a day like today.  I really hope you have taken the advice from this blog seriously.  I watch over millions and millions of dollars so one of my eyes is always on my screens watching for what’s moving and where the risks are. 

The last few days have been interesting because we’re not rallying where we should be.  I had mentioned yesterday we were mildly oversold and I expected a mediocre rally.  This is actually a better scenario.  If we can’t even rally where we are supposed to, then we might be headed for a spike in fear and outright distribution of stocks.  We’re getting very close to the lows of 1256 which was the intraday low in early March.  Here’s what we want.  We want to break through those lows and see all the technicians say “uh oh, now what?”  That will cause a big spike in volume and fear.  That will be the place to uncover the shorts for a nice multi month trade. 

For now, it’s getting too late to short if you haven’t already.  Gold still looks good and I’d still buy GLD.  Also, note that DUG is up today on a day where oil is up almost $4.

So, enjoy these days and look at them as opportunities (if you’re positioned properly).  Also, remember being short enables you to hold your good stocks that are getting beaten up.  It’s about the portfolio, not the individual positions.