Comments for Through A Trader's Eyes

Comment on CNBC Asia 7/1/09 by keggerss

keggerss — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:15:13 +0000

I’m not sure if you heard incorrectly or if dan misspoke. We still have both sides of the trade.

Comment on CNBC Asia 7/1/09 by Allison

Allison — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:13:09 +0000

Dan said on his show last week that you guys have stopped out of your UNG position, but continuing to hold your SZO position. Why would you stop out of 1/2 of your pairs trade and not the whole thing?

Comment on Technical Talk On The S&P 500 by keggerss

keggerss — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:14:12 +0000

Very good observation. We do use ECRI’s data in our forecasting. But, that’s just a piece of the puzzle. When you have Dr. Art Laffer & Dr. John Rutledge on your team, that helps alot with economic forecasting. We also use many other indicators and data for economic forecasting.

But, to get back to ECRI, their leading index is a coincident indicator as far as the stock market goes. But, that leading index number is like a freight train. It doesn’t see saw back and forth. It has a lot of momentum right now and takes a lot to reverse. So, we expect it’ll continue to rise over the next few months and stocks will as well, after a pullback.

Comment on Technical Talk On The S&P 500 by James

James — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 18:46:57 +0000

You have been talking about the gap trade, the difference between stock market prices and leading economic indicators. If you are referring to ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index, I personally worry about interpreting that gap as a buying opportunity on a pullback in stock prices. Although my analysis is not complete, what work I have done shows that ECRI’s WLI is correlated with the stock market. If that is true, I would consider them as coincident indicators. If the stock market falls, so will the WLI, and vice versa. They may not fall/rise exactly at the same time. One or the other takes turn leading and it is only a matter of time before the other follows. If this is true, and I do not have the statistical proof just yet, then it would be erroneous to assume that the WLI leads the stock market or vice versa. Have you done any work on this?

Comment on The Gap Trade Continues by keggerss

keggerss — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:32:20 +0000

Unfortunately, I don’t know of any. Perhaps using an ETF of nat gas stocks would be best for you or take the time to learn about opening a futures account.

Comment on The Gap Trade Continues by James

James — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:57:35 +0000

Are there any natural gas ETF/ETN alternatives that track natural gas better? The rollover cost on the futures contract on UNG have killed those holding for a longer period of time. Futures traders would buy the next month contract in anticipation of the roll and sell it to UNG as they roll over to the next month.

Comment on Not Looking Good by keggerss

keggerss — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 12:31:06 +0000

Hey Michael. I actually use my Bloomberg machine to do that. However, there is retail software that’ll help you do it.

Comment on Not Looking Good by Michael

Michael — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:37:24 +0000

Karl,

I listen to your show daily and I have been wanting to ask you what type of back testing software you use? You often talk about what has “worked” in that past and I was just curious what you use to figure that out if anything.

Thanks and keep up the good work!

Comment on CNBC Asia 6/17/09 by keggerss

keggerss — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 14:00:50 +0000

Scary!

Comment on CNBC Asia 6/17/09 by James

James — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 01:30:47 +0000

Phew, it looks like it is all clear. We can invest again. See picture.

http://cdn.magazines.com/fetch/key/product_money/image?macro=original