New Site

I’m pleased to announce I’ve updated to a more vibrant site which will include more functionality for me and you both.  Those of you that were subscribed to don’t have to change anything or re-subscribe.  The e-mails from “Through A Trader’s Eyes” will look a little different from now on because they are coming from a different source.  Those of you who read the site through an RSS reader will need to re-subscribe to get the new feeds.  If you’ve bookmarked, there will be no more posts to that site. should be the new bookmark.  I’ll continue to make updates to the site and would encourage any feedback.


Karl Eggerss


A singularity is a point at which an otherwise continuous mathematical progression becomes effectively infinite, implying that all continuous extrapolation breaks down beyond that point. Technological singularity refers to the hypothesis that technological progress will reach such an infinite or extremely high value at a point in the near future.

The idea is inspired by the observation of accelerating change in the development of wealth, technology, and humans’ capability for information processing.[dubious – discuss] Extrapolating these capabilities to the future has led a number of thinkers to envisage the short-term emergence of a self-improving artificial intelligence or superintelligence[1] that is so much beyond humans’ present capabilities that it becomes impossible to understand it with present conceptions.

It is alternately suggested that a singularity could come about through amplification of human intelligence to the point that the resulting transhumans would be incomprehensible to their purely biological counterparts. The technological singularity is posited as a metasystem transition or transcendence to a wholly new regime of mind, society, and technology. (Source: Wikipedia)

Above is the definition of singularity. This video puts it into perspective how fast technology is changing. It’s not just changing but it’s changing at a rapid pace. That will not only affect our lives, but our investments.

Through A Trader’s Eyes Podcast #5 – February 2, 2010

Click here for the Through A Trader’s Eyes Podcast #5 – February 2, 2010

Through A Trader’s Eyes Podcast #4 – January 29, 2010

Click here for Through A Trader’s Eyes Podcast #4 – January 29, 2010.

Upside Surprise To GDP Growth

On Friday morning, one of my favorite pieces of economic data was reported much better than expected.  The GDP Growth Rate (Quarter over quarter annualized) was reported at 5.7% vs. a 4.7% estimate.  This is also much higher than the last report of 2.2%.  Below is the S&P 500 (blue line) and the GDP growth rate (red).  This is one of the few economic indicators that is actually correlated with stock prices.  This indicator measures not how big our economy but the rate of change of growth.  Investors buy or sell stocks based on whether or not the economic growth is accelerating or decelerating.

You can see above that since 1998, the stock market has been very correlated to this number.  The stock market bottomed in March 2009 before the economy actually started to accelerate but leading economic indicators at the time were pointing in that direction.  It’s been up ever since.  In 2009, I was on television several times using a number of 5%+ for GDP growth.  Some agreed with me but most were shocked that I would say such a thing.  Here we are now in early 2010 with a reading of almost 6%.  I anticipate this number will peak at some point and start to head the other direction.  I could look similar to the 2004 & 2005 time frame.  The economy was accelerating in 2003 then began to slow down.  The are a few differences this time versus 2004.  First, the economy this time has expanded at a much faster clip and secondly I don’t believe this is the beginning of a multi-year bull market.

At the end of the day, the economy will begin to slow.  It will keep growing but just at a slower pace and I think the stock market will follow with more of a sideways choppy pattern.  But, for now, enjoy the better than expected report and potentially an oversold bounce.

Podcast 3 – 1/27/2010

Click here for the latest podcast.

The Bounce Area?

The Nasdaq has fallen almost 6% from its recent high after outperforming for most of 2009.  The weakness started after Intel reported great earnings and the stock essentially went nowhere.  Then, we had IBM’s earnings.  Same thing.  Last night, we had Apple report earnings and Amazon will report later in the week.  Is the Nasdaq ready to bounce?

You can see from the picture above of the Nasdaq that the breakout we had in late December around 2200 has held in the last two days.  I think the combination of Apple’s earnings, the big Apple release tomorrow, and Amazon’s later in the week could provide a bounce.  Technology is really hitting on all cylinders right now.  But, the market was very overbought when Intel & IBM announced their earnings a few weeks back setting us up for a fall.  We have gone from overbought to oversold in just a few days.  There are definitely some negative fundamental issues to deal with.  But, technology to me is still the place to be.  Perhaps shorting weaker areas like financials against technology makes sense.  I believe the excellent fundamental news and the trickle down from the Windows 7 release will lift tech at some point soon.


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