Is Oil Peaking?

This will be a brief post as I’m getting ready for the 2008 Fort Worth Money Fair.  I’ll try to post from there to let you know what’s going on if you can’t make it.

Oil touched $123 per barrel today after Goldman Sachs, the first to call for the super spike of $100 a couple of years ago.  They are now saying we’ll see another super spike anywhere from $150-$200.  Does this mark the top?  Boy, I’d had to get in front of this train.  But, I can tell you I’m getting very close to getting some sell signs on some of the underlying oil stocks, ranging from the service companies to the drillers.  We’re not there yet and I’m not jumping the gun, but keep an eye on this.  There may be a short trade in there eventually. 

By the way, if you’re wondering what the correlation is between stocks going up or down when the price of oil rises, there is none.  There are times when oil goes up and the stock market goes down and vice versa.  In the last year for example, the correlation is 0.  So, if you’re wanting to trade the U.S. stock market based on the price of oil, it’s a crapshoot.

See you at the Money Fair.


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May 2008
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