Where’s Gold Going

I’ve been getting comments regarding my thoughts on gold and where it’s going.

I had written a couple of months ago I though gold would go down to $830.  It went to $850 and then bounced only to fall to $830 in late April.  At that point, I was saying I’d short into any rally for the medium term.  I still liked gold long term.  Well, after hitting $830, we did get a rally up to about the $870 level but I didn’t short but was still negative.  Over the past 6 trading sessions, gold has gone from $850 to around $925 per ounce.  I must admit I didn’t see this move coming.  I thought we would continue to drift lower and continue to make lower highs as it had the previous few months.

So, now that it’s broken its almost 3 month downtrend, where’s it going from here?  It’s basically in a spot that I wouldn’t take a position.  It could have reached a double top around the $930 range.  This has been a big move recently.  It could easily come back to $870 and then continue up.  If it’s in a new downtrend, then it should start now.  For now, I wouldn’t take any position.  However, I will keep you updated on exactly when do take that position.  (I’m starting to sounds like a politician)



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May 2008
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