Crazy Investor Indicator Update

We’re still not at any extremes I can see, especially when it comes to the fear confidence meter I watch.  As you can see below, we’re basically in the middle.  If we test the lows of July 15th which is possible, you’ll see that fear indicator spike.  Then we could have a nice sustainable rally for a while.  Until then, I’m still keeping it neutral. 

With the market in neutral territory right now, I’m not buying much.  I did buy some more Valero (VLO) a couple of weeks ago.  I think it’s on the verge of a breakout for a trade.  Looking at the company, I think they will remain under pressure as refining margins will remain low.  They are doing well with their refining on diesel products due to global demand.  But, overall, it’ll be challenging unless oil goes below $100 which I wouldn’t count on.  But, for a trade, I think it’s on the verge of a breakout.  I believe if it breaks out, we could see $40 per share which is its 75 day moving average.  It just hasn’t had the traction yet to get going.  It could start soon as it did in late May.

1 Response to “Crazy Investor Indicator Update”

  1. 1 Lee August 27, 2008 at 6:25 am

    I heard you mention yesterday on the radio that you would announce when you believe its time to cover our shorts and go long in the market for the next meaningful rally.

    Please post this on your blog as I check it daily but don’t always get a chance to listen to the radio everyday.

    Thank you..

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August 2008
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