It Could Get Ugly

I went into the weekend thinking that we would have a Lehman deal done by now (3:00 p.m. CST).  But, the latest purchaser, Barclays Bank, has backed out after saying they didn’t get the guarantees they wanted to protect themselves against potential losses.  Barclays is the 3rd largest bank in the U.K. 

Technically, we were ready for a rally.  Especially after seeing that the market was so resilient in the last few days.  Also, the hurricane missed most of the refineries so oil is down at the moment as well.  All we needed was one more crisis behind us.  Now, it appears Lehman Brothers could really go bankrupt.  This will cause some major disruptions around the financial world and potentially cause stock markets around the world to sell off.

Even though I’m not holding any short positions on the general market, I still have my financial short position (SKF) and a great deal of cash.  So, if we do get that big washout with some really nasty days, we can put some of the cash to work.  We’re already oversold and my fear indicator was at very lofty levels.  All this will do is exxagerate both of those.

Should be an interesting Monday.


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September 2008
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