Chicken Or The Egg?

As the market has become weaker over the past few weeks, McCain has slipped in the polls.  Some are saying the market is discounting an Obama presidency and that’s why it’s falling now.  This could be true.  Below is a picture of how McCain is trading at Intrade.  You can see that as his odds of winning the election have fallen.  At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrials have fallen also.  My question is which came first?  Is it that the Dow Jones Industrials Index has fallen and McCain’s chances have fallen in reaction?  Or, is it that as McCain’s chances have fallen so has the market?  I’ll let you decide.  Just thought it was an interesting picture.

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