Triple Bottom?

The upside down head & shoulders I’ve been writing about looked promising a few days ago, but the last two days have wiped that out.  So, what’s next?  A triple bottom.  We’ve had the double bottom (looking at intraday lows).  Perhaps we’ll have a triple bottom.  I think we’re forming a range.  Now, it won’t be perfect.  We could go to new lows and then race back up.  We don’t know.  But, it looks as if we’re in a range now that is very wide.  On the Dow, it’s in the low 8000s to the mid 9000s.  Quite a range but that’s what we have.  Volatility still persists as does the whipsaw risk.  I’ve been whipsawed in the last few days.  Fortunately, I continue to play small.  My overall allocation is about 20-25%.  I’m still concentrating on buying more bonds than stocks right now because those deals won’t last as long.

For now, let’s be a little more patient until once again the market proves itself to us.  I think we’re getting oversold in the short run and we have a good chance of rallying next week.  Time is on our side as well.  12 out of the last 14 years have had a positive pre-Thanksgiving week rally.  Now, I’m not a seasonality guy, but we’ll take anything we can get right now.


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November 2008
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